Simultaneous over- and underconfidence: Evidence from experimental asset markets

Author(s)

Erich Kirchler, Boris Maciejovsky

Abstract

In this paper we investigate individual over confidence within the context of an experimental asset market. Overall, 72 participants traded one risky asset on six markets of 12 participants each. Our results indicate that participants are not generally prone to overconfidence. A comparison of two different measures of overconfidence, (i) subjective confidence intervals and (ii) differences between objective accuracy and subjective certainty, lead to a different classification of behavior in our data-set. We observe well-calibration as well as over- and underconfidence.

Organisation(s)

External organisation(s)

Max Planck Institute for Research into Economic Systems

Journal

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty

Volume

25

Pages

65-85

No. of pages

21

ISSN

0895-5646

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1016319430881

Publication date

2002

Peer reviewed

Yes

Austrian Fields of Science 2012

5010 Psychology

Portal url

https://ucrisportal.univie.ac.at/en/publications/e4a609df-4484-4a5a-b938-b47937c98e00