Causal attribution and hindsight bias for economic developments
- Author(s)
- Erik Hölzl, Erich Kirchler
- Abstract
Hindsight bias for economic developments was studied, with particular focus on the moderating effects of attitudes and causal attributions. Participants (N = 263) rated the likelihood of several economic developments 6 months before and 6 months after the euro introduction in 2002. Hindsight bias occurred selectively for attitude-consistent economic developments: Euro supporters showed stronger hindsight bias for positive developments than for negative ones; euro opponents showed the opposite pattern. Causal attribution further moderated the hindsight bias: Participants who perceived a strong connection between the euro introduction and specific economic developments showed higher attitude-consistent hindsight bias than participants who perceived those developments as unrelated to the euro. It is argued that hindsight bias serves to stabilize subjective representations of the economy.
- Organisation(s)
- Journal
- Journal of Applied Psychology
- Volume
- 90
- Pages
- 167-174
- No. of pages
- 8
- ISSN
- 0021-9010
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1037/0021-9010.90.1.167
- Publication date
- 2005
- Peer reviewed
- Yes
- Austrian Fields of Science 2012
- 5010 Psychology
- Portal url
- https://ucrisportal.univie.ac.at/en/publications/causal-attribution-and-hindsight-bias-for-economic-developments(a55a90f2-fbe7-44c3-9199-dd62d0bc85b1).html