Causal attribution and hindsight bias for economic developments

Author(s)

Erik Hölzl, Erich Kirchler

Abstract

Hindsight bias for economic developments was studied, with particular focus on the moderating effects of attitudes and causal attributions. Participants (N = 263) rated the likelihood of several economic developments 6 months before and 6 months after the euro introduction in 2002. Hindsight bias occurred selectively for attitude-consistent economic developments: Euro supporters showed stronger hindsight bias for positive developments than for negative ones; euro opponents showed the opposite pattern. Causal attribution further moderated the hindsight bias: Participants who perceived a strong connection between the euro introduction and specific economic developments showed higher attitude-consistent hindsight bias than participants who perceived those developments as unrelated to the euro. It is argued that hindsight bias serves to stabilize subjective representations of the economy.

Organisation(s)

Journal

Journal of Applied Psychology

Volume

90

Pages

167-174

No. of pages

8

ISSN

0021-9010

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1037/0021-9010.90.1.167

Publication date

2005

Peer reviewed

Yes

Austrian Fields of Science 2012

5010 Psychology

Portal url

https://ucrisportal.univie.ac.at/en/publications/a55a90f2-fbe7-44c3-9199-dd62d0bc85b1